Monday, February 20, 2023

The geopolitics of Poland in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

 Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, Poland has played an important role in the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II: it has received more refugees than anyone else, functioning as a buffer zone between the fighting and the rest of Europe, and militarily assisted Kyiv, as part of NATO's support strategy.

 

The cause seems to lie in its geographical position: Poland shares a 498-kilometer border with Ukraine, 375 kilometers with Belarus—Moscow's most staunch ally—and 209 kilometers with Russia, around the Kaliningrad enclave. Even so, he would like it, he does not have the possibility to stay on the sidelines.

But there are also clues in its recent history: after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Poland left behind the communist system and its position in Moscow's sphere of influence to integrate as quickly as possible with Western Europe, joining NATO. and in the European Union.

 

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, has also tried in recent years to move closer to Western Europe and progressively leave Russia's sphere of influence, and this movement has been one of the main causes of the war.

 

The war reaches Polish territory

The fall of a missile in Polish territory, which caused the death of two people, has just further expanded the country's role in the war, although it does not participate in the fighting or seek an open conflict with Russia.

 

The origin of the missile and the circumstances of the event are not entirely clear, but the president of Poland, Andrzej Duda, said Wednesday that there is "no indication" that it was an "intentional attack." The main hypothesis, according to Duda, is that it is an S-300 air defense missile.

 

And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also indicated that it was "most likely" an S-300 fired by Ukraine on Tuesday, mistakenly landing on Polish territory.

 

In recent days, Russia has fired close to 100 cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine, and Ukrainian air defenses, including S-300 systems, have attempted to counter this offensive.

 

Poland, Ukrainian refugee center

Since the first day of the war, the daily reality of Poland has been shaken by the massive arrival of Ukrainian refugees, through its 498 kilometers of border.

 

According to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (Acnur), a total of 12,485,047 Ukrainians crossed the different borders of the country after the start of the war (many returned to their homes in the following months).

 

Most of these Ukrainians, 7,583,850 in total, crossed into Poland, followed by 1,746,421 who went to Hungary and 1,525,677 who arrived in Romania, among other initial destinations. Also, 2,869,100 Ukrainians crossed the border into Russia, as Russian troops occupied different cities and amid reports of forced transfers.

 

Regardless of where they crossed the border, the Ukrainian refugees were then distributed throughout Europe. Of the total 7,841,359 currently registered by UNHCR (i.e. the total number of people who crossed minus the number who later returned to Ukraine), 1,497,849 are settled in Poland under temporary protection as refugees, more than anywhere else. country (next on the list is Germany, which received 1,019,789 Ukrainian refugees).

 

The geopolitical position of Poland

Poland lies in Eastern Europe, between Germany and Russia, and right on the Great European Plain that has allowed for fluid migrations between east and west, a situation that has subjected it to centuries of foreign domination.

 

The country was part of different empires - among them the Russian one - until 1918, then divided between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union at the beginning of World War II, until it became the People's Republic of Poland, a communist state under the shadow of Moscow. , during the Cold War.

 

When the USSR began to disintegrate, Poland regained its independence

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