The armed conflict in Syria has left one of the worst humanitarian crises since World War II, which has lasted in time since the Arab Spring in 2011, which brought with it a wave of social protests in the Middle East and was violently repressed by the authoritarian government of Bashar Al Assad. It is a complex conflict with a multiplicity of international, regional, state and non-state actors "putting in" for the variety of interests (geopolitical, economic and religious influence in the region, strategic exit points, energy, etc.) that surround the territory. In this context, several questions are generated. Is a regime change possible? How long can this conflict continue over time? Has it lost relevance for the West to intervene?
This article intends to make an analysis of the armed conflict in Syria, from an International Relations perspective, taking into account variables: geopolitical, religious, economic and energetic, and to propose possible future scenarios for the conflict based on the questions raised above.
Background
In order to have a little more clarity on the panorama, it is necessary to make a historical account of the region, and the consequences that are reflected today in Syria. During the Ottoman Empire and until World War I the concept of the Nation-State did not exist, nor did Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait or Palestine; in the Middle East there were only clans grouped according to religious beliefs and ethnic groups, separated by geography
These States were born after the breach of the Sykes-Picot Agreements by France and England after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. France and England used the Treaty of Versailles of 1919 as a reference for International Law, betrayed the promises to the leaders of the tribes to grant them a Unified Arab Kingdom and drew lines on the map of the Middle East to divide the territory, thus forcing clans and opposing religions to come together under the same territory, Syria ended on the mandate of the French government
In 1971 when Hafez Al Assad positioned himself as Syrian president (with the ideal of building a Unified Arab), a position he held for 30 years and after his death he succeeded his son Bashar Al Assad. It should be noted that Syria is a country in which more than 70% of the population is Muslim and, like any monotheistic religion, it is divided into different branches, Sunnis and Shiites in the case of Islam, which do not mutually recognize themselves as Muslims; In this sense, the political caste of Al Assad is Shiite and represents only 11% of the population, while 76% of the population identifies as Sunni (The Global Economy, 2013). In other words, the leader does not represent the majority of his population in a region where religion plays a key role when it comes to making politics, not to mention that although the transition of power from father to son took place through voting, these they were not transparent nor did the majority of citizens get to vote.
As mentioned above, in 2011, after a decade since Bashar Al Assad took power, a wave of protests called the "Arab Spring" began in Tunisia and spread throughout the Middle East, from which Syria was not exempt. . Bashar Al Assad's response was violent and repressive, and this is how the Free Syrian Army, terrorist groups, armies of the Bashar Al Assad regime, alliances and counter-alliances that began the armed conflict that today turns 10 years old and that is unknown how long will it last.
Armed conflict
Any confrontation carried out by groups of different kinds (such as regular or irregular military forces, guerrillas, armed opposition groups, paramilitary groups, or ethnic or religious communities that, using weapons or other destructive measures, cause more than 100 victims in a year
This is a concept that is applied to classify the Syrian conflict as an armed conflict since the UNHCR (2021) counts as of March 2021 6.7 million internally displaced persons, 6.6 million refugees in In addition, according to the DW (2021) in the world, in these 10 years there have been more than 400,000 deaths and 200,000 missing. On the other hand, we find a diversity of actors, their connections and external support in the logic of alliances, which explains the duration of the conflict and the failure of all resolution attempts, as well as the decision of Western governments not to intervene, which which are classified as follows:
International.
Supporting the regime:
China is mainly a supplier of arms to the regime, but also has strong economic relations with it
Russia, a strategic ally of Iran and the regime, also benefits from the energy wealth of the territory
Iran, because it is a Shiite majority, is in its interests to establish itself as hegemon and maintain its influence in the region. Not counting his strong economic ties.
Against the Regime:
During the Obama and Trump administrations, US interests in Syria were based on obtaining oil and maintaining their influence in the region, but recently Biden has decided to continue intervening in favor of the humanitarian crisis. The first of his intentions is to prevent Russia and China, backers of the Syrian government in the UN Security Council, from carrying out his plan to close all access points for food and medicine to northern opposition areas.
Turkey finds itself in both a warlike and a diplomatic confrontation, due to the position that the Turkish government acquired in the Syrian civil war, since despite having different interests they have identical ambitions that can be observed since the civil war, when Turkey provided material, support and training for opposition Islamist groups such as the Free Syrian Army against the Assad regime; similarly, Ankara's both political and military approach to the Assad regime made the Syrian Kurds its enemies.
Saudi Arabia, unlike Iran, is a Sunni monarchy, which also seeks to maintain its position of influence in the region and reduce Iran's, it is also a strategic ally of the United States
Israel, a strategic ally of Saudi Arabia and the United States, is constantly threatened by Iran, Syria and the Lebanese jihadist group Hezbollah, who do not recognize it as a State
The ONU.
The international community wonders if the UN will be able to peacefully end the armed conflict in Syria, but the truth is that its hands are constantly tied by Russia and China using their veto power in the Security Council to stop any resolution that is mandatory and has teeth for the Syrian regime. Until 2019, Russia has vetoed 17 resolutions on the conflict in Syria, especially those that punish the use of chemical weapons during the conflict.
Terrorists.
Islamic State or Daesh, an organization seeks the achievement of the United Arab Kingdom that was taken from them by the West with the Treaty of Versailles, and was consolidated in 2014 after the Arab Spring in Iraq and Syria. Although they have lost prominence, they control much of the territory of both countries and have contributed greatly to the number of humanitarian victims. It should be noted that they are not supported by the Syrian regime or by the countries of the East or the West.
Hezbollah is a Lebanese jihadist terrorist group that has used Syrian territory over the years to carry out attacks on the Israel.
Kurdistan.
Although the government of Iraq views the Kurdish population as terrorists, in this analysis we will understand them as a nation without a state. Most of its population is distributed between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, however, its case in Syria is particular because they have a "state attempt" called Rojiva in the northeast of the country, here the Kurdish people have autonomous control over the territory. It could be inferred that this town simply pursues its interests of establishing itself in a territory beyond being influenced by any faction.
Nationals.
The military army of the Syrian regime, violently protects and maintains the government of Bashar Al Assad, is financed and armed by its strategic partners (China, Russia and Iran).
The Free Syrian Army, born in response to the repression of the Bashar Al Assad dictatorship in the midst of protests and seeks to protect civil society, is mainly supported in arms and financing by Western countries such as the United States, some European countries and Saudi Arabia
Civil Society is not generally considered an actor in the conflict, but the truth is that they have been the victims of crossfire, repression and the political, economic and religious interests of the previously mentioned actors.
This dynamic of the actors evidently reflects their intentions to maintain political, economic, religious and energy power and also shows us the residue of the bilateral world during the cold war, but no longer between capitalism and socialism but between the West and the East. It is not only Iran that uses the conflicts of other countries in the region to stay in power and weaken the enemy, this is an act of the majority of the regional, international and terrorist actors involved; Saudi Arabia, being the other side of the coin, works in conjunction with its Western allies. Syria has become a stage in which foreign powers look out for their own interests. Arab countries back the opposition, but not all the same groups: the Saudis and the Qataris, for example, are vying for influence, each helping different sides to do so.
The game of geopolitics, energy and religion in the conflict
We must keep in mind that Syria is very attractive to regional and international players due to its geostrategic position and the richness of its territory. Turkey, that is, with the main players in the region; it also has a strategic exit point to the Mediterranean Sea and a large part of the Euphrates River.
Energy is another of the reasons that make Syria attractive, although it is known that Syria does not have large amounts of resources oriented to oil reserves, it has a territory that has been coveted by many since it is rich in gases and hydrocarbons. It should be reiterated that the fact that Syria has direct access to the Mediterranean Sea makes the country a strategic point and this privilege gives it the power to have the last word when deciding which of the gas export route projects will be carried out. : Qatar-Turkey-Syria or Iran, Iraq and Syria
Let's remember that Qatar and Turkey are allies and are against the Bashar Al Assad regime (which is the one that can make a decision up to now); On the other hand, we have Iran and Iraq, partners since the beginning of the Syrian regime, but that is not the only thing, these States are Shiite governments, not monarchists, and, moreover, allies of Russia and China. Without a doubt, a strategic gas export route that connects the Persian Gulf with the Mediterranean Sea and that passes through Iraq, Iran and Syria would be destabilizing and would completely change the balance of power in the region, and would send a direct message to their enemies (Saudi Arabia, Israel, United States, Turkey, etc).
Therefore, in order to understand the different aspects of the armed conflict in Syria, it is necessary to refer to both the control and distribution of hydrocarbons in the Middle East, since due to its geostrategic position it has made its conflicts due to interests This implies that they are coveted by the great powers, which is why, although we know that Syria does not have large amounts of oil reserves, it has a territory that has been coveted by many, because it is also a communication bridge between the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea make it easier to send hydrocarbons to the European market
On the other hand, the first explorations in search of oil deposits in Syria occurred in the second half of the 20th century, but large-scale extractions began in the late 1970s based on the Syrian Petroleum Company, where they began to discover new oil wells; even so, compared to other places such as the United Arab Emirates, which have reserves in larger quantities of oil, Syria has reserves that can only satisfy its internal demand, it is now that we ask ourselves why there are conflicts around oil when Syria does not Do you have so many reserves of it?
What happens is that, as has already been stated, Syria is at a key strategic point for the export of oil, it has 2,500 million barrels of crude compared to the 300,000 million barrels that Saudi Arabia has or Iran's 150,000. and Iraq and although compared to the other countries it does not produce as much oil, its control is symbolic from a political perspective, while from an economic perspective the loss of control of the deposits has impacted the Al Assad regime since its exploitation represented a quarter of the income of Damascus, and which is exported mainly to countries like Russia, China. In 2014, the Islamic State, due to its advances in the control of Syrian territory, took over a large part of the oil business in the region, from which previously the Bashar Al Assad regime mainly benefited. Later, due to the weakening of the Islamic State, it is the Kurdish population that acquired control of the oil fields located in the Raqqa region.
In the same way, it is important to remember how this energy resource directly affects the social conflict in the region, since after the uprising against the Bashar al Assad regime, the European Union imposed sanctions and among them is the prohibition Syrian oil imports. This effectively affected the economy of oil in Syria dramatically, causing an economic downturn due to the fact that, after Russia and China, most of its potential customers were members of the European Union.
Conclusion
The Syrian conflict should not be tried to be understood in a disjointed or simplistic way since, due to the dynamism that characterizes the region, the geopolitical, religious and energy variables complement each other to give us a broader and more complete panorama of what that it is a conflict as complex as the one that Syria has been experiencing for ten years.
Religious sectarianism, together with a governance crisis and a lack of citizen representation, gave way to a series of demonstrations that were met with a repressive state response and the rise of extremist groups such as the Islamic State. Add to this Syria's important geographical position for gas and oil export routes, its hydrocarbon wealth and its quest to maintain a balance of power in the Middle East region and we have the perfect recipe for a conflict fraught with alliances and against regional and international alliances that seek to be able to "get their hands on" and get the most out of it. But above all, a conflict with devastating humanitarian consequences.
It is striking, but not surprising, that the humanitarian and migration crisis is not the main concern of most of the intervening actors, however, during the Biden administration, the United States put the issue on the table again, showing the intention of wanting to push harder to weaken Bashar Al Assad's government; A US intervention that intends to contemplate more issues on the agenda regarding the Syrian conflict would not necessarily be linked to energetic motivations, but rather to maintain its influence and counteract Russian influence over the region.
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